"EASE 6" Detailed Explanation

When trying to assess the predictions for the mid-season deluge of 180+ weekend matches, the dilemma you will have each week will be exactly the same as everybody else's: which of our predictions are the most reliable ones for your current week's betting?

The simple truth here is that our most reliable predictions in percentage terms are the Home Win "Short Odds" Calls under the "Advanced Client Data", but you will never make your fortune there. In fact, the best you are ever likely to do (and then only if you are exceedingly lucky), is end up with 5% more in your pocket at the end of the season.

Because "favourites" often go wrong and produce Draws, you could try betting "Double Chance" using our "1X2 Outright Win Calls". But the Odds in some cases would be far too low to consider laying out against and, in any case, you may not do much better overall than by laying out on Outright Wins for the same matches.

The alternative is to go for "Double Chance" calls for matches where "Medium Odds" are offered for the Home Win Calls; this is what we post under the Weekend Prime Selections for "Double Chance Calls". But even here you still couldn't expect to make much, as one or two of those matches may result in Away Wins (and which is the reason why the Home Win Calls were priced at Medium Odds in the first place). So we caution that you need to be very selective about which of those Medium Odds matches you opted to bet on.

What we ourselves prefer to go for is Correct Scores multiple-line betting, using 6 "special" matches where both teams are expected (but, of course, they can never be "relied upon") to score near enough the exact number of goals the Program has predicted (the "Anticipated Score-Lines").

However, coming up with star quality betting decisions on a regular basis is no mean feat. It always takes a lot of hard work. This is true (even where you try to save time by using comprehensive ready-prepared data from an online service such as ours) simply because the sheer volume of information you must take into consideration when working out the best betting options for yourself is almost overwhelming.

To assist our Clients who lack the time but who still want to do some detailed research before laying out their bets, we have tried to take as much of the hard work out of it as possible by adding an additional element to our Services. We do this by posting what we consider to be the best "Correct Scores" options, which we identify by trawling our Program's extensive output. And we then justify/support those selections with easily accessible backup data.

We refer to this additional Service as our "EASE 6" selections ("EASE" being short for "Express Advisory Service"), because the detailed information provided saves our Clients the trouble of having to research and collate all the prediction backup data for themselves.

The "EASE 6" backup data takes the form of a weekly downloadable spreadsheet file providing full details of those 6 weekend matches we ourselves intend using for Correct Scores betting. To make the data as useful as possible, we identify any ODDBALLS we observe within the data (and which occur more often that you might think or like, even though we have tried to select the 6 most "conforming" non-oddball matches available).

The "EASE 6" spreadsheet has been arranged so that those who do not have time to look into the backup information too deeply can easily locate and understand what it is that we are going for. It contains a considerable amount of detail for anyone who wishes to "turn over all the stones"! We therefore hope that it will prove as useful for the novice as it does to our veteran Clients.

This makes it 'quick-n-easy' for you to check out our conclusions for yourself and decide whether or not you want to lay out money on the picks we ourselves have chosen to bet on. Even if you don’t necessarily agree with our particular findings, you yourself will have very quickly analysed the details of 6 good quality selections, and thus worked out for yourself what YOU consider would be the most likely match outcomes. Compare the ease of taking that route to selecting your bets with the alternative of researching for yourself from scratch the details of 180+ weekend matches!

The downloadable "EASE 6" spreadsheet already contains the outcome of our betting if all results were to come through as we hope for, because we have placed a "Y" in all the "Results" boxes. If you wish to change the Odds or Stakes for the matches we have selected to suit your own requirements (higher or lower staking levels) and/or your own findings (for example, you may find better Odds than those we quote by using one of the Odds Comparison Websites such as BetExplorer - www.betexplorer.com/soccer/), then you will find it is very easy to do so.

As you change the Odds or Stakes to suit your actual betting, the figures all automatically adjust to show the new maximum potential winnings. All you have to do is replace those artificial 'dreamt-for' results with the details of the actual results. You can do this incrementally where the matches are played at different times or on different days, so at any given time before the next match is played you can still see what to expect if all the outstanding matches come good for you. Believe us when we tell you this can be more exhilarating at times than a wild roller-coaster ride!

For those who are interested, our methodology for selecting the final "EASE 6" matches each week is to try to find matches that meet all the following criteria, commencing with those that have the highest "Current 1X2 Reliability":

1. Our principal aim is not to have to resort to selecting a match where a Relegated or Promoted team is present. If the first pass through all the matches establishes that there is no other choice, then we look for the match (or matches, if need be) where the relative performance of both teams can be established the most clearly. But first we go through the list logically, from the highest Current 1X2 Reliability to the lowest, testing each one of the rules/parameters given below.
2. We avoid any match that is a known local derby or well-known needle match, simply because you can't be sure which way it will go this time out, and if the match is not a Draw you can get unusual score-lines such as 3-2 and 4-3 occurring.
3. We use only those matches for which our Program is calling a HOME WIN.
4. The Bookies must also be truly regarding the match as a potential HOME WIN (meaning that the "Win Only" Odds must be (i) much lower for the Home Team and (ii) not too near to the Away Team's "Win Only" Odds (otherwise it indicates a hedged call by the Bookie - i.e. a potential Draw).
5. We check the "Head-to-Head" results to identify matches where the result last season and the season before were HOME WINs, or if last season was a HOME WIN and the season before that was not, we check to see if (i) the Home Team's track record was good overall and (ii) if the Away Team's record was bad. If this check does not give us comfort we drop the match. This step can in fact be the most difficult one to get right, but if we have any doubts at all or have to hesitate about the choice, then we move on to look at the next match in line.
6. The Double Chance Odds must be at least 1.12 but not over 1.35.
7. We then check the League Tables to see exactly where the teams stand in relation to each other, although in the early part of the season this is far less meaningful. However if the Home team is way down below the Away team, then we drop that match.
8. The 2 teams must display low scoring generally. If there are too many matches between the 2 teams that carry high scores, then we drop that match.
9. The result indicated by the "Projected Score-Line" must not differ from the original Anticipated Score-Line, except that where there are not enough matches meeting this criteria then a possible Draw is acceptable. In fact, most weeks it is not possible to find 6 matches that meet all the above criteria and then this criterion too.
10. The 2 teams must display low scoring generally. If there are too many matches between the 2 teams that carry high scores, then we drop that match.
11. The accuracy of the Program's 1X2 call for the HOME WIN should not be much below 50%, otherwise we drop such matches.
12. If there are any big surprises in quite recent results for previous weeks (a bad loss when an easy win was expected), then we drop such a match. This is especially important where the match is lower down on the list of Current 1X2 Reliabilities.
13. And finally, just to make sure we are perfectly comfortable with the HOME WIN call, we check the current League Table Standings to see if it still seems to be a reasonable expectation bearing in mind the relative positions of the two teams; if not, we drop the match and move on to find something we are more comfortable with.

Where 6 matches meeting all the above criteria or close thereto can’t be found, we add in the remainder of matches required to make up the 6 on this basis:

1. We identify those "favourites" matches where the stronger teams are expected to win by a margin of at least 2 goals (i.e. 2-0, 3-1, 3-0, 4-0, etc.) and go for the "Outright Win" call, not the Double Chance call.
2. From amongst those "favourites", we then select matches where the score-lines are the most consistent compared to the strength of the opponents. This means that we look for progressively bigger goal differences where the opponent’s apparent weakness increases.
3. The strong team’s reliability (or otherwise) regarding actual score-lines is taken into account when deciding on hedge betting score-lines, and our guiding principle is to select those "favourites" matches we are most comfortable with overall.

We don’t expect our "EASE 6" selections to do well every week, particularly early on in the season, but when it has come together later on in past seasons we have had some spectacular weeks that more than compensated for the bad patches. And having the spreadsheet expectations by our side to keep our hopes high has made for some extremely exciting weekend match-watching on those ‘very near miss’ occasions, even where we have not made a profit!

For those Clients who have more time available plus the inclination to do research across a range of alternative matches, we also produce a "BLANK EASE 6" spreadsheet (only accessible from the menus under "Advanced Client Data"), which enables our Clients to select and analyse the data for any 6 matches of their own choosing in exactly the same way as we do for our weekly-posted "EASE 6".